Well, I get to answer my own question. After much thrashing about, I went to disable/re-enable RDP. Oddly enough, the RDP dialog box warned me that I still had to make an exception for RDP in the firewall. It shouldn't say that if the firewall is off, so I go to check and...whaddayaknow! The firewall is back on!
Now the weird question is how the firewall got turned back on. Did VMWare do it? Did installing some of the Win2k8 updates do it? No way to know.