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@Technogeezer wrote:

The 2025-2027 time frame for dropping Intel support for macOS might be in the ballpark. By 2026 all Intel Macs but the Mac Pro will be classified as Vintage hardware. Apple doesn’t seem to want to support a new OS version on Vintage hardware.

Apart from the 2019 Mac Pro, there were several Intel models discontinued during 2021, all of which would be vintage by late 2026. A few will go vintage in 2027 or 2028:

• iMac (Retina 5K, 27-inch, 2020): discontinued March 2022, vintage about March 2027.
• Mac mini (2018): discontinued January 2023, vintage about January 2028.
• Mac Pro (2019): probably discontinued in the next month or two, vintage about mid 2028.

That Mac mini needs to be supported at least by macOS 14 and macOS 15; if it was dropped by macOS 16 (late 2025) then it would be a few months short for security updates. If this model was the only consideration, Apple could extend macOS 15 security updates a few months longer than usual.

Would that suffice for the 2019 Mac Pro? It would need about nine extra months of security updates, which feels more like it should get one more macOS version. Other models might come along for the ride, depending on driver support and CPU/GPU requirements.

[Edited then back again to correct off-by-one miscalculation.]